Thursday, April 4, 2019

My predictions for 2019 LS elections

So here goes. Take it with a pinch of salt if you want. But here are my predictions for the number of seats BJP will get in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

UP was the obvious reason why they came to power in 2014 and I don't think its possible to repeat that feat (Wow! if they do). But that reduction will be more than made up from West Bengal.

I also see reduction in Bihar (due to seat sharing), Gujarat and Rajasthan. On the other hand, Maharashtra, Odisha and Andhra could rise along with a big swing across the NE states.

I predict a 300+ for BJP in the elections. Lets see how correct I am on the 23rd of May!

  Total Seats BJP - 2014 BJP - 2019
Andaman & Nicobar 1 1 1
Andhra Pradesh 25 2 10
Arunachal Pradesh 2 1 1
Assam 14 7 8
Bihar 40 22 17
Chandigarh 1 1 1
Chhattisgarh 11 10 10
Dadar & Nagar Haveli 1 1 1
Daman & diu 1 1 1
Delhi 7 7 6
Goa 2 2 2
Gujarat 26 26 20
Haryana 10 7 7
Himachal Pradesh 4 4 4
Jammu & Kashmir 6 3 4
Jharkhand 14 12 10
Karnataka 28 17 20
Kerala 20   2
Lakshadweep 1   1
Madhya Pradesh 29 27 25
Maharashtra 48 23 30
Manipur 2   1
Meghalaya 2   1
Mizoram 1    
Nagaland 1    
Odisha 21 1 12
Puducherry 1   0
Punjab 13 2 5
Rajasthan 25 25 15
Sikkim 1   1
Tamil Nadu 39 1 4
Telangana 17 1 5
Tripura 2   2
Uttar Pradesh 80 71 60
Uttarakhand 5 5 5
West Bengal 42 2 18
TOTAL 543 282 310

Monday, March 4, 2019

OFB, Korwa, Amethi - PM Modi, have you no shame?

In a really scathing Twitter post today morning, the Gandhi scion showed both, his skill in Hindi language and his pride at having inaugurated a factory in 2010.



This was in reply to a tweet by Mr.Modi on his announcement that the AK-203 rifles will be produced in Korwa.



I decided to do a bit of research of my own to figure out this new angle. After all Modi has got his posters all over town with an AK-203 in his hand and is proclaiming to anyone who will care to listen that he is getting into this tie-up with the Russians.

Made sense to get some timelines straight.

2005: Carbines - an Urgent Operational Requirement of the Indian Army


The Army flagged the requirement for carbines as an immediate and urgent requirement in October, 2005. Apart from the home made INSAS, which itself has been plagued by numerous issues, the Army has rifles and carbines which have been obsolete almost everywhere else in the world. The Army needed carbines and they needed them now. (This was 14 years ago!)

2007: At an investment of 408 crores, a greenfield factory is planned for Korwa


After a 2 year deliberation, the GoI decided to set up a greenfield plant under OFB in Korwa in Amethi, the constituency of Rahul Gandhi. Foundation stone was laid and inaugurated by Mr.Gandhi himself in December of that year.

Seriousness of the government was doubtful even then. As against a requirement of 60 acres, HAL (whose land was taken) only had 34 acres to spare. To top it up, no carbine had yet been selected or was even close to selection. No RFP was also issued and no proposals had obviously been received.

I have limited experience in manufacturing but I do know that you cannot built a factory without even knowing what you will produce in it.



2007 to 2009: Things drag on - with no hope


During this period, the GoI issued RFP's twice as per a report by the CAG in 2010. Both times, for different reasons, the RFP's were withdrawn. At one time, no reason was given!



According to the same report, the OFB decided, in October 2009, to start making some sporting rifles in the factory so that the "schedule" for manufacturing could be kept.

This would obviously neither fulfil the original purpose of manufacturing guns for the Army but will also result in additional costs.

2010: CAG report deserves a special mention


The 2010 CAG report had several very interesting points over and above the points I mentioned above.
  1. Against a requirement of 60 acres, HAL, Korwa gave only 34. Against this, OFB, Kanpur already had 118 acres extra and had 4 running factories with logistics, housing etc already present which would have saved crores. OFB, Tiruchirapalli had 1300 acres to spare! I would wonder why a greenfield plant was selected in Korwa?
  2. Even till 2009 which was just 1 more year before production was supposed to start, the government was nowhere near selecting the gun to be manufactured. 
  3. The extra land required had still not been acquired. The request was pending with the UP government and nothing had been done.
  4. As if all this was enough, HAL had promised to transfer some extra housing that they had to OFB. This was not done resulting in an increase in cost for building extra houses.


2016: CAG report - again - and nothing in between


In 2010, the project scheduled date had been revised to 2017. Rs.299 crores had been spent till 2015. And to no one's surprise, nothing had happened as far as selecting the carbine to build was concerned. This was a total of TEN YEARS AFTER THE ARMY HAD RAISED AN URGENT DEMAND. Nine of these Ten years were under the government of the same Mr.Gandhi who was shaming Mr.Modi today. And for his own constituency and country's safety.

The report also clearly stated that NO PRODUCTION (not even those sporting rifles) had happened in the plant.


2018 to Present: Progress as it happened


After numerous attempts to engage various vendors and even try the indigenous route, the requirement for guns became more and more severe. In 2018, India decided to get into a joint production with Russia through the "Make in India" scheme for AK series of guns.

In 2019, this was finalized for the AK-203 and the same has been handed over to a JV between Russian company and OFB to manufacture the guns at the same Korwa factory in Mr.Gandhi's Amethi.

Guess Mr. Gandhi didn't really know what was happening in the factory after his cronies had made him cut the ribbons and fed him with pastries. Or maybe they did and he didn't just bother. We will hopefully never know. What we know is that the plan is up for some serious manufacturing in the factory.

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