Tamil Nadu - What should worry AIADMK?

As the world discusses the political churning that happened in the Hindu heartland, I thought of taking up a few states where results were more in line with what people thought and look at a slightly different view.

First in line is Tamil Nadu where Jayalalitha's AIADMK created a record of sorts by taking every single seat bar one which went to BJP. The word is out on what will happen to the future of DMK but since there is no real threat to AIADMK, DMK may rise like a Phoenix. I beg to differ. There is a threat! Here goes...

Jayalalitha’s situation post 16^th May

Mrs.Jayalalitha Jayaram is in a very comfortable position after 16^th May, 2014. Why do I say that when everyone is thinking about how she is of no value since BJP has got majority on its own? Think about these points:

• She heads the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.
• She is not in the ruling coalition hence no pressures to worry about on that front. She is immune from the problems of governance.
• She is indispensible to Modi and BJP because of her seats in Rajya Sabha as well as to keep the other members of the NDA, Congress and UPA from shouting. 
•  She is even more powerful in Tamil Nadu now that she was before with the only real opposition (DMK) having been obliterated.
• Her relationship with Modi & BJP is wonderfully cordial which ensures that her word will get the attention from the center that it needs. This is known to every single Tamil as well.

Be sad if you feel that Amma will have no say in power plays in Delhi but that will be very far from reality. Add to this the fact that like all South Indian states, Tamil people always feel alienated from politics in Delhi. They will love to be part of power politics up North since they know that such closeness will give them some much needed support from the central governments. That could be the reason why the vote share of BJP has more than doubled in the state compared to 2009 (from 2.3% to 5.5%).

What is the worry for AIADMK?

The vote share of BJP is exactly why Jayalalitha should be worried and play her cards really well. Apart from Congress, no non-Dravidian party has ever got significant votes in TN. Congress has also almost always worked with DMK (allies in 2004, 2009) and that has alone worked in there favor. This is the first time that a party with roots in North India and fighting without either DMK or AIADMK support has managed to become the third largest party in terms of vote share.  And this has come from only 7 of the 39 seats that they stood from. DMDK which stood from 14 seats got 5.1% votes and actually came in fourth behind its (supposedly) junior NDA partner in the state. PMK which stood from 8 seats got 4.4%.

Lets look at the table below:

Voting details for Tamil Nadu - 2014 LS Elections
Party name	No of seats	Vote share	Extrapolated to 39 seats
NDA
BJP	7	5.50%	30.6%
DMDK	14	5.10%	14.2%
PMK	8	4.40%	21.5%
AIADMK	39	44.30%	44.3%
DMK	34	23.60%	27.1%
INC	39	4.30%	4.3%

If the vote share for each party was extrapolated to 39 seats, BJP would have easily been the second largest party above even DMK. This will be a scary situation not just for AIADMK but every single Dravidian party including DMK.

The people have proven here that they are absolutely fine with electing a non-Dravidian party to represent them in the center. How much time will it take for them to feel it right to appoint BJP for state government as well?

What should Amma do?

If I was to give some advice to Jayalalitha on securing her power in the state, it will be to join NDA quietly. With current seats in LS and RS and her government in the state, she can easily dictate terms to BJP during any elections in TN. This will help her in two ways:

• Trust of the people will be retained: People of Tamil Nadu will know that she is aligned to a national party and they can expect to have a Dravidian party with power in Delhi as well to represent them.
• BJP will be under control: BJP will continue to be a junior party in the state and will not be able to become a threat to Amma in the near or medium term.

 I will try and keep updating this post with more data and analysis. Love to have other opinions as well.

NG

NOTA - Who did what in Assembly elections of 2013

Continuance from my previous post on the great enabler that has been recently given to the people of India, NOTA or "None of The Above". This option is already available in few countries across the globe. None of them were India obviously with our own typical problems and issues which might be impossible for others to even understand.

We have a "secular" government in power for the last 10 years which never falters when it comes to rights for OBC's or SC's or the "lower castes" but when it comes to doing some reforms for everyone, the systems just stop moving (except maybe the infamous MNREGA but I need a whole post to outline that). So how has NOTA option worked in the one election where it has been used till date?

A small analysis of NOTA has been done by Livemint and explained very nicely with this image I have taken the liberty of adding here.

Its interesting to note here that the least number of NOTA clicks happened in Delhi which supposedly has the most number of educated people. Of course, some part of this could be attributed to the new found faith that people had in AAP. Maybe we can check this result vs the result for Delhi in the LS polls since the "faith" has now vanished and we are "back to square one" as it can be put. Maybe it will go upto 1.5% from the current levels which will be similar to MP and Rajasthan.

The surprising (or not so surprising) part is that Chhattisgarh polled almost 3% NOTA. A closer look at the constituencies will show that of these, more NOTA was polled in Naxal hit areas. So maybe people there have been so deeply hurt by the governments that they are simply discussing options of have a Naxal ruled land and hence punching NOTA into the machine. Now what does that tell us? Let the Naxals rule? Or maybe the political parties will console themselves by saying that it was only 3%! Now what will happen if the naxals who we define as terrorists do ensure that NOTA becomes the highest pressed button? Maybe the naxals can now confidently claim that people do want to be "liberated" from the government being formed and want a Naxal land for themselves? A recipe for disaster?

Maybe...or maybe an eye opener.

I personally will not want someone wasting his voting power on a button like NOTA. Simply...do not vote if you are really not bothered about who comes to power. We are better off without your precious vote.

NG

NOTA - How good or bad is it? Post 1

I recently read that an NGO somewhere in our beautiful land is protesting that the Election Commission should not keep the NOTA or None Of The Above option as merely informational. In case, they protest, NOTA gets more votes than anyone else, the largest vote getting "real" candidate should not be declared as winner.

Supreme Court in September of 2013 had declared that NOTA will henceforth be an option in the voting machine in all Indian elections. The decision has obviously been taken after a lot of thought and surely the impact must have been discussed over a short and a long term.

NOTA as explained by Hindustan Times

I wanted to look at this option from two perspectives:

1. What kind of people who live in and around us will push the NOTA button?
2. One election has already seen NOTA in action (December, 2013 assembly elections in 5 states). What was the result? I will take this up in the next post.

Social Media is a great tool to understand the current trends and thought processes of people. If you are in India today, you will surely say that elections are the current "hit" on Facebook, Twitter and maybe even Orkut (if it exists). There are people who support BJP & Modi (me included) and then there are people who have other affiliations like AAP or even Congress (imagine that!). Then there is a distinct number of people who seem proud of the fact that they find the entire system and all political parties as corrupt and inhuman. They find consolation in the fact that either they "Will Definitely Not Vote" or click NOTA. Hats off to you guys! You have just made the worst decision of your life (in my honest opinion). Ask a Chinese or a North Korean what he will not give to go and give an honest vote. If nothing worked in India, surely elections would be the biggest farce that existed.

My opinion in such cases where NOTA (God forbid) votes exceeded anyone else's would be to allow NOTA to rule. Let their be no government and no laws. Let people "enjoy" and let Darwin's theory of "Survival of the Fittest" rule. My skin crawls when I think of such scenario and all those Hollywood movies with zombies running around start playing in my mind.

A government may be corrupt and may not do anything for us. But at least it allows for us to live in somewhat and relative peace. We can at least go to work every morning with an assurance that their is a better probability that we will return in the evening. How will NOTA do that for you?

I feel that even if there is a staunch BSP supporter, he at least knows what he is doing. He / she has made a decision and is sticking to it. Indecision should not be hidden behind the garb of not going to vote or simply clicking NOTA.

Just a thought: What is the point of going all the way to a voting station and then click NOTA anyway? Possibly the thought is "I am anyway planning to waste my vote. Why not waste my and polling officer's time as well while I am at it!"

NG

Will Rahul Gandhi win in Amethi this time?

I have been thinking about this question since the time Kumar Vishwas's name was put up by AAP to contest from Amethi.

Rahul Gandhi won 72% of the votes polled in 2009. Seventy Two Percent. That is a big number in a country like India where the number of people who stand in elections is sometimes more than what a polling machine can handle. But several factors now run against Mr.Gandhi now.

1. The obvious anti-incumbancy against the UPA coupled with corruption charges and what not...
2. RaGa himself has not been seen in Amethi many times after winning in 2009. Another matter to discuss would actually be what he really did in the 10 years of UPA rule but that needs another post.
3. The 2012 state election results were a shocker for Congress in Amethi as well as Rae Bareli despite Priyanka campaigning aggressively. Congress lost a lot of ground in Amethi.
4. As soon as Kumar Vishwas's name was announced, Vishwas packed his bags and went off to Amethi. After the first couple of weeks, he has been absent from National Media except some one-liners here or there...something which is not expected out of him given his and his party's fetish to be in headlines. Obviously, we can assume that he is not sitting their swatting mosquitoes.
5. Neither the BJP, nor any other party had really strong names against Rahul in Amethi in previous elections. This time, Smriti Irani, a personality herself, is pitted against him. She also has the "Modi wave" to support her in this endeavor.
6. Biggest factor against Rahul Gandhi is Rahul Gandhi himself. His famous Times Now interview is now stuff of legendary jokes. Surely Kumar Vishwas, himself a comedian, will make sure that people of Amethi get earfuls of these jokes on a daily ration till elections.

The swings of 2012 elections should have been an eye opener but still no actions of any meaning were taken by RaGa. He is now fighting in his home turf against some really aggressive and strong opponents. Amethi will be a very very interesting result to watch for since it is possible that the Congress votes get divided three ways between Congress itself, AAP and BJP. BJP could actually emerge victorious from this but 72% as earlier mentioned is too big a number...possibly the reason why Congress if feeling at peace.

NG

Who really ran away from Delhi post elections in 2013

A brand new allegation against BJP is that they are the ones who ran away from Delhi in December, 2013 since they refused to form a government despite having the largest number of seats.

Dear proponents of this theory,

Please know that without either AAP or Congress support, BJP did not have a majority. None of them (despite people insisting that BJP=Congress) would have given outside support and hence forcefully becoming CM would only have wasted governance time which Dr.Harshvardhan decided against.

AAP had Congress support which they used like a true blooded political party which had forgotten all its tall claims and statements made before elections. They managed to rule for a total of 49 days after which they resigned stating that Congress of BJP refused to get a bill into the assembly. A bill which was being introduced in an illegal manner and would have resulted in nothing but utter wastage of time if any discussions were done on it not to mention the fact that all MLA's would have been party to illegal proceedings.

During this time, they claimed that corruption was reduced and so was inflation. For a total of 49 days out of a total of 1825 days for which a rule should normally last! These claims have been supported by data collected by AAP itself. Definitely an embodiment of genuine claims.

In truth, inflation always reduced immediately before any election in India. This will obviously have an impact for at least 49 days after the second government comes to power.

In truth, during the 49 day rule, government officials were being continuously hassled and harassed by people wearing AAP caps. Forget claims of corruption, I want some independent body to actually check the output of these offices during this time compared to other times.

In truth, nothing was done to protect women in the city. Something which resulted in the wave of protests which actually brought AAP to the forefront in Delhi. In fact, an AAP leader and his gang actually went and manhandled some women who were allegedly peddling drugs. Did someone call for the absent human rights which immediately came up when a female terrorist was killed by the police in Gujarat? (and they say that its the BJP which the Congress is in cahoots with)

In truth, the entire city of Delhi was left paralyzed during most of these 49 days due to frequent protests and allegations and dharnas. Surprisingly, these were being held by the government itself! Against who...I wonder! Since they are the people who are supposed to change the laws.

In truth, AAP had not expected to win 28 seats in Delhi and once they did, they had no idea what to do since none of them are leaders. They have and continue to be a bunch of people who know how to complain and point fingers but have no idea about how to bring about solutions and change the system.

I am from Delhi. I saw the 49 day (mis)rule of AAP. I made numerous public comments before and during the rule that AAP had a great chance to really show to people that they meant what they said. Unfortunately, they proved otherwise.

Thought of making things a bit clearer on the "Delhi rule of AAP" or "AAP rule of Delhi" in this first blog post from the view of a Delhiite. All statements can be verified through media reports from that period.

Another way to verify: Lets see how many of the Delhi seats are won by AAP in the LS elections.

NG