My predictions for 2019 LS elections

So here goes. Take it with a pinch of salt if you want. But here are my predictions for the number of seats BJP will get in the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

UP was the obvious reason why they came to power in 2014 and I don't think its possible to repeat that feat (Wow! if they do). But that reduction will be more than made up from West Bengal.

I also see reduction in Bihar (due to seat sharing), Gujarat and Rajasthan. On the other hand, Maharashtra, Odisha and Andhra could rise along with a big swing across the NE states.

I predict a 300+ for BJP in the elections. Lets see how correct I am on the 23rd of May!

	Total Seats	BJP - 2014	BJP - 2019
Andaman & Nicobar	1	1	1
Andhra Pradesh	25	2	10
Arunachal Pradesh	2	1	1
Assam	14	7	8
Bihar	40	22	17
Chandigarh	1	1	1
Chhattisgarh	11	10	10
Dadar & Nagar Haveli	1	1	1
Daman & diu	1	1	1
Delhi	7	7	6
Goa	2	2	2
Gujarat	26	26	20
Haryana	10	7	7
Himachal Pradesh	4	4	4
Jammu & Kashmir	6	3	4
Jharkhand	14	12	10
Karnataka	28	17	20
Kerala	20		2
Lakshadweep	1		1
Madhya Pradesh	29	27	25
Maharashtra	48	23	30
Manipur	2		1
Meghalaya	2		1
Mizoram	1
Nagaland	1
Odisha	21	1	12
Puducherry	1		0
Punjab	13	2	5
Rajasthan	25	25	15
Sikkim	1		1
Tamil Nadu	39	1	4
Telangana	17	1	5
Tripura	2		2
Uttar Pradesh	80	71	60
Uttarakhand	5	5	5
West Bengal	42	2	18
TOTAL	543	282	310

OFB, Korwa, Amethi - PM Modi, have you no shame?

In a really scathing Twitter post today morning, the Gandhi scion showed both, his skill in Hindi language and his pride at having inaugurated a factory in 2010.

This was in reply to a tweet by Mr.Modi on his announcement that the AK-203 rifles will be produced in Korwa.

I decided to do a bit of research of my own to figure out this new angle. After all Modi has got his posters all over town with an AK-203 in his hand and is proclaiming to anyone who will care to listen that he is getting into this tie-up with the Russians.

Made sense to get some timelines straight.

2005: Carbines - an Urgent Operational Requirement of the Indian Army

The Army flagged the requirement for carbines as an immediate and urgent requirement in October, 2005. Apart from the home made INSAS, which itself has been plagued by numerous issues, the Army has rifles and carbines which have been obsolete almost everywhere else in the world. The Army needed carbines and they needed them now. (This was 14 years ago!)

2007: At an investment of 408 crores, a greenfield factory is planned for Korwa

After a 2 year deliberation, the GoI decided to set up a greenfield plant under OFB in Korwa in Amethi, the constituency of Rahul Gandhi. Foundation stone was laid and inaugurated by Mr.Gandhi himself in December of that year.

Seriousness of the government was doubtful even then. As against a requirement of 60 acres, HAL (whose land was taken) only had 34 acres to spare. To top it up, no carbine had yet been selected or was even close to selection. No RFP was also issued and no proposals had obviously been received.

I have limited experience in manufacturing but I do know that you cannot built a factory without even knowing what you will produce in it.

2007 to 2009: Things drag on - with no hope

During this period, the GoI issued RFP's twice as per a report by the CAG in 2010. Both times, for different reasons, the RFP's were withdrawn. At one time, no reason was given!

According to the same report, the OFB decided, in October 2009, to start making some sporting rifles in the factory so that the "schedule" for manufacturing could be kept.

This would obviously neither fulfil the original purpose of manufacturing guns for the Army but will also result in additional costs.

2010: CAG report deserves a special mention

The 2010 CAG report had several very interesting points over and above the points I mentioned above.

1. Against a requirement of 60 acres, HAL, Korwa gave only 34. Against this, OFB, Kanpur already had 118 acres extra and had 4 running factories with logistics, housing etc already present which would have saved crores. OFB, Tiruchirapalli had 1300 acres to spare! I would wonder why a greenfield plant was selected in Korwa?
2. Even till 2009 which was just 1 more year before production was supposed to start, the government was nowhere near selecting the gun to be manufactured. 
3. The extra land required had still not been acquired. The request was pending with the UP government and nothing had been done.
4. As if all this was enough, HAL had promised to transfer some extra housing that they had to OFB. This was not done resulting in an increase in cost for building extra houses.

2016: CAG report - again - and nothing in between

In 2010, the project scheduled date had been revised to 2017. Rs.299 crores had been spent till 2015. And to no one's surprise, nothing had happened as far as selecting the carbine to build was concerned. This was a total of TEN YEARS AFTER THE ARMY HAD RAISED AN URGENT DEMAND. Nine of these Ten years were under the government of the same Mr.Gandhi who was shaming Mr.Modi today. And for his own constituency and country's safety.

The report also clearly stated that NO PRODUCTION (not even those sporting rifles) had happened in the plant.

2018 to Present: Progress as it happened

After numerous attempts to engage various vendors and even try the indigenous route, the requirement for guns became more and more severe. In 2018, India decided to get into a joint production with Russia through the "Make in India" scheme for AK series of guns.

In 2019, this was finalized for the AK-203 and the same has been handed over to a JV between Russian company and OFB to manufacture the guns at the same Korwa factory in Mr.Gandhi's Amethi.

Guess Mr. Gandhi didn't really know what was happening in the factory after his cronies had made him cut the ribbons and fed him with pastries. Or maybe they did and he didn't just bother. We will hopefully never know. What we know is that the plan is up for some serious manufacturing in the factory.

References:

• CLAWS (Center for Land Warfare Studies) report on India and its tryst with carbines
• Press Release by OFB related to the Korwa plant. They stated INSAS and handgun production will also happen but that never did.
• CAG report of 2010 
• CAG report of 2016 

Archaic APMC Act - Apathy and Agony for Indian Farmers

Post Independence, our fore fathers were really concerned about the farmers. Agriculture was the main source of income for most of the Indians. Hence they came up with something fantastic. Instead of working towards lesser reliability on monsoons or increasing R&D in seeds, agricultural practices, pesticides etc, they came up with an APMC act.

What is APMC Act?
This is an act enacted by various state governments. It was started in the 50's to ensure that no farmers were exploited by being forced to sell their produce at less rates. APMC yards were created by govts and licenses given to only few individuals who would get a "shop" in one of these yards. The farmers were not allowed to sell their produce to anyone outside these yards. If caught, they could be jailed, fined or both! What the governments did was to not only force the farmers to sell at whatever rates these middlemen wanted but also bear the cost of transportation, damages and the middleman will decide the quality of produce.

What this did?

Real example 1: A licensed vendor in Azadpur Mandi, Delhi wanted to give up his license since he had gotten old, made enough money and both kids were in USA. His "shop" was one charpoy (a single cot made of a wooden frame and jute fiber) under open sky. Along with his license, his shop in Azadpur mandi was sold for a measly Rs.2 crore. That is the kind of money you make by being a middleman. Obviously at whose expense?

Real example 2: Recently while driving back from AP to Bangalore, we crossed an area where lots of tomato is grown. While crossing a village, we decided to try and purchase some for home. A farmer sneakily selling tomato near the road side gave me a huge bag for Rs.20. On later weighing, I found the bag to have 10 kg tomatoes. Running rate in retail stores in Bangalore (around 20 kms from this place) at that time was Rs.25 per Kg. Where is the huge difference in money going? And the farmer is obviously selling to these middlemen at a rate lesser than Rs.2 per kg.

Real example 3: Arhar daal or Tuur daal is a staple protein across most of the country. It is the primary ingredient in Sambar in South India. In 2015, rates doubled from Rs.100-120 per Kg to more than Rs.240 per Kg. This was attributed to production falling by around15% due to monsoons. Government went into an overdrive to control rates and hoarders were rounded up. More than 50,000 Tonnes of pulses were seized from various middlemen. No one knows how much more was actually hoarded. Prices being controlled through such hoarding activities are nothing new. Thanks to the few middlemen controlling the entire market.

Now imagine the farmers getting facilities to discover the price themselves and sell directly to open market or to whoever they want. I assure you that most of the suicides will be curbed by this simple change in the law. In addition with the irrigation policy of NDA govt which they are planning to implement, food woes of India and its farmers are gone!

Case in point: Maharashtra which has been facing a severe issue of farmer suicides has recently tried to make changes in its APMC act. Unfortunately, the real reason for why this archaic act is not changed came to the forefront as Congress and NCP immediately opposed the amendments. How will a politician make money if the money goes back to the farmers? If they die....let them :-(

NDA government is coming up with an online platform for helping farmers in this matter. While the central government cannot make laws since agriculture is a state subject, they are acting as a catalyst where the state governments can use these enablers to uplift farmers. Its now upto our states to work.

India, JNNSM Solar Mission, USA and its selfish ideals

JNNSM or Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission was launched in 2010 by the then PM of India, Dr.Manmohan Singh to deploy 20,000 MW (yep...that many zeroes!) of grid connected solar powerby 2022. This target was revised by the NDA government in 2015 to become 100,000 MW of solar power. All the details are given here. To put things in perspective, in 2014, the entire world produced 177 GW (177,000 MW) of solar power. This is the installed capacity of solar panels across the world.

 

Given in the table below is the annual solar power production in the top 5 countries in the world as in 2014.

Data for 2014
Country	Production in GW
Germany	38.2
China	28.2
Japan	23.3
Italy	18.5
USA	18.3

  

Compared to these, India had an installed capacity of 5 GW in December, 2015. (I would love to take a dig at the UPA govt who did practically nothing to work on the grand plan except giving it a name of Gandhi parivar but that is not the intention at present). 

Government of Rajasthan has set aside 35,000 sqkm of land in the Thar Desert. This itself, if completely utilized, can generate 700 to 2100 GW of power. (that means at least 18 times the power generated by Germany at present!)

What I am doing here is just putting numbers to show the kind of capacity that we are speaking about. India can not only become the leader in this field if JNNSM is properly implemented which Modi government has already taken up seriously but we can actually change the rules of the game.

No wonder, solar cell manufacturers the world over started salivating.....but WAIT! What about the stupid clause about domestic production of critical components? Now that surely is against the rules...right? What about equality between a developed country and a developing economy which is trying to stay green? What about the many jobs that will be snatched from the jaws of the poor developed nation if all these billion dollar worth of solar panels were made cheaper?

The US President wants to double exports in the next few years. The only way that can be achieved is by reducing local manufacturing in some major economies. And when you have things like WTO in your pocket, it becomes so much more easier.

What should India do? Obviously challenge the decision. But IMHO, we should simply show the middle finger and move on. In another 2-3 years, with proper focus, we might be exporting panels to the US given the cost advantages that we get not only because of huge local demand, cheaper labor but obviously due to more modern plants. 

Lets do an America on the Americans ;-)