Tamil Nadu - What should worry AIADMK?

As the world discusses the political churning that happened in the Hindu heartland, I thought of taking up a few states where results were more in line with what people thought and look at a slightly different view.

First in line is Tamil Nadu where Jayalalitha's AIADMK created a record of sorts by taking every single seat bar one which went to BJP. The word is out on what will happen to the future of DMK but since there is no real threat to AIADMK, DMK may rise like a Phoenix. I beg to differ. There is a threat! Here goes...

Jayalalitha’s situation post 16^th May

Mrs.Jayalalitha Jayaram is in a very comfortable position after 16^th May, 2014. Why do I say that when everyone is thinking about how she is of no value since BJP has got majority on its own? Think about these points:

• She heads the third largest party in the Lok Sabha.
• She is not in the ruling coalition hence no pressures to worry about on that front. She is immune from the problems of governance.
• She is indispensible to Modi and BJP because of her seats in Rajya Sabha as well as to keep the other members of the NDA, Congress and UPA from shouting. 
•  She is even more powerful in Tamil Nadu now that she was before with the only real opposition (DMK) having been obliterated.
• Her relationship with Modi & BJP is wonderfully cordial which ensures that her word will get the attention from the center that it needs. This is known to every single Tamil as well.

Be sad if you feel that Amma will have no say in power plays in Delhi but that will be very far from reality. Add to this the fact that like all South Indian states, Tamil people always feel alienated from politics in Delhi. They will love to be part of power politics up North since they know that such closeness will give them some much needed support from the central governments. That could be the reason why the vote share of BJP has more than doubled in the state compared to 2009 (from 2.3% to 5.5%).

What is the worry for AIADMK?

The vote share of BJP is exactly why Jayalalitha should be worried and play her cards really well. Apart from Congress, no non-Dravidian party has ever got significant votes in TN. Congress has also almost always worked with DMK (allies in 2004, 2009) and that has alone worked in there favor. This is the first time that a party with roots in North India and fighting without either DMK or AIADMK support has managed to become the third largest party in terms of vote share.  And this has come from only 7 of the 39 seats that they stood from. DMDK which stood from 14 seats got 5.1% votes and actually came in fourth behind its (supposedly) junior NDA partner in the state. PMK which stood from 8 seats got 4.4%.

Lets look at the table below:

Voting details for Tamil Nadu - 2014 LS Elections
Party name	No of seats	Vote share	Extrapolated to 39 seats
NDA
BJP	7	5.50%	30.6%
DMDK	14	5.10%	14.2%
PMK	8	4.40%	21.5%
AIADMK	39	44.30%	44.3%
DMK	34	23.60%	27.1%
INC	39	4.30%	4.3%

If the vote share for each party was extrapolated to 39 seats, BJP would have easily been the second largest party above even DMK. This will be a scary situation not just for AIADMK but every single Dravidian party including DMK.

The people have proven here that they are absolutely fine with electing a non-Dravidian party to represent them in the center. How much time will it take for them to feel it right to appoint BJP for state government as well?

What should Amma do?

If I was to give some advice to Jayalalitha on securing her power in the state, it will be to join NDA quietly. With current seats in LS and RS and her government in the state, she can easily dictate terms to BJP during any elections in TN. This will help her in two ways:

• Trust of the people will be retained: People of Tamil Nadu will know that she is aligned to a national party and they can expect to have a Dravidian party with power in Delhi as well to represent them.
• BJP will be under control: BJP will continue to be a junior party in the state and will not be able to become a threat to Amma in the near or medium term.

 I will try and keep updating this post with more data and analysis. Love to have other opinions as well.

NG