Will Rahul Gandhi win in Amethi this time?

I have been thinking about this question since the time Kumar Vishwas's name was put up by AAP to contest from Amethi.

Rahul Gandhi won 72% of the votes polled in 2009. Seventy Two Percent. That is a big number in a country like India where the number of people who stand in elections is sometimes more than what a polling machine can handle. But several factors now run against Mr.Gandhi now.

1. The obvious anti-incumbancy against the UPA coupled with corruption charges and what not...
2. RaGa himself has not been seen in Amethi many times after winning in 2009. Another matter to discuss would actually be what he really did in the 10 years of UPA rule but that needs another post.
3. The 2012 state election results were a shocker for Congress in Amethi as well as Rae Bareli despite Priyanka campaigning aggressively. Congress lost a lot of ground in Amethi.
4. As soon as Kumar Vishwas's name was announced, Vishwas packed his bags and went off to Amethi. After the first couple of weeks, he has been absent from National Media except some one-liners here or there...something which is not expected out of him given his and his party's fetish to be in headlines. Obviously, we can assume that he is not sitting their swatting mosquitoes.
5. Neither the BJP, nor any other party had really strong names against Rahul in Amethi in previous elections. This time, Smriti Irani, a personality herself, is pitted against him. She also has the "Modi wave" to support her in this endeavor.
6. Biggest factor against Rahul Gandhi is Rahul Gandhi himself. His famous Times Now interview is now stuff of legendary jokes. Surely Kumar Vishwas, himself a comedian, will make sure that people of Amethi get earfuls of these jokes on a daily ration till elections.

The swings of 2012 elections should have been an eye opener but still no actions of any meaning were taken by RaGa. He is now fighting in his home turf against some really aggressive and strong opponents. Amethi will be a very very interesting result to watch for since it is possible that the Congress votes get divided three ways between Congress itself, AAP and BJP. BJP could actually emerge victorious from this but 72% as earlier mentioned is too big a number...possibly the reason why Congress if feeling at peace.

NG