American Thinker recently had an article about 7 reasons why China will start a war by 2017. This is on very similar lines on a statement that I had made on facebook few days back.
There was a reason for this statement that day. There was news about how China is building its "great wall of sand" in South China Sea.
China has always been a nation which has never bothered about impact of its actions on neighboring countries. If one thing is good for them, it will be done. But this is surely an action that will not just have implications for other nations with claims in the South China Sea but also China since all the countries will together become aggressive. Till date, China has been rejecting all talk of discussing the island disputes in either ASEAN or UN since they are aware that bilateral discussion with any of the other nations with claims will obviously be in favor of a far more powerful China. This kind of construction will obviously result in a far more united ASEAN. In addition, Japan and even USA will become far more careful and will start monitoring all activities of China with a very thin sieve.
China is not unaware of the result of its actions. Its definitely not a fool. In addition, this is not a solitary incident. Chinese fishermen harassing Japanese coast guard around Senkaku islands has been happening for a while now. China has been doing offshore drilling for oil in the disputed area. There was an incident of a Chinese fighter coming very close to a couple of American navy planes including a P8 in August last year.
I do not need to be a clairvoyant to show that China is becoming more and more aggressive even against a country that is supposed to be the lone "superpower" in the world.
Another incident happened few days back which reinforces my feeling that China is looking for a war on its eastern front. Janes Defence Weekly published a pic of a helicopter base being built by China on islands which are the closest Chinese outposts near Senkaku islands.
The trenches are going to have fueling pipes for the choppers. Basically this becomes a stopover for any helicopters from Chinese mainland on way to a mission for refueling. No prize for guessing where they will be going for the missions. I was typing this when I remembered an old WW-2 story of how an Allied force pilot realized that the war was near when he observed some German fuel lines on the airports. I could not find that story or article right now so will update later or request someone to send me the link.
China is a country which has a problem if India plans to build a road in Arunachal Pradesh claiming that it shows aggression. What then do all these incidents and deeds of the country represent in the two seas to the east?
Not even a country like China will go to war without some backup. Military budgets are being hiked year on year with hi-tech offensive (not defensive) platforms being inducted almost on a daily basis. A year worth of food stocks are in storage along with a "pork storage" as well. Reliance on middle east for oil is being reduced on a regular basis and even then, Pakistani port is being developed to keep minimum need for SLOC's through South and East China seas in case of a naval blockade there. India is being wooed to avoid a serious two front war.
Now coming to the internal politics of China - a country which has historically worked on the "central kingdom" concept. In today's world, that central kingdom is Beijing with the areas around it being geared to act as buffers to prevent the occupation of the central kingdom by enemy. The larger the buffer, the lesser the possibility of this imaginary occupation. CPC (Communist Party of China) considers itself the sole owner of the fate of every Chinese (and possibly every human on Earth). The biggest fear that they have is a fear of losing this power. At present, there simply are too many issues which can blow up into civil unrest and overthrow (or at least a revolution). Economy is slowing with people losing jobs, domestic debt is 1.5 times the National GDP (with bleak possibility of the debt being cleared), Taiwan will declare independence (when is the only question).
The anti-corruption campaign of Xi has been used to clean up the CPC of his opponents who will obviously have a lot of their own supporters out to take revenge. In addition, with internet being internet along with the spurt of Chinese going out of the country, citizens are becoming aware of what they are missing out on in the rule of the CPC. I am sure, I have missed a dozen or so other points including Hong Kong etc.
All in all, just too many points for a communist party to not be peeing in its pants and fishing for some issue to keep the minds of people occupied. War has historically been the best bet. Ask the Americans. They will agree!
There was a reason for this statement that day. There was news about how China is building its "great wall of sand" in South China Sea.
China has always been a nation which has never bothered about impact of its actions on neighboring countries. If one thing is good for them, it will be done. But this is surely an action that will not just have implications for other nations with claims in the South China Sea but also China since all the countries will together become aggressive. Till date, China has been rejecting all talk of discussing the island disputes in either ASEAN or UN since they are aware that bilateral discussion with any of the other nations with claims will obviously be in favor of a far more powerful China. This kind of construction will obviously result in a far more united ASEAN. In addition, Japan and even USA will become far more careful and will start monitoring all activities of China with a very thin sieve.
China is not unaware of the result of its actions. Its definitely not a fool. In addition, this is not a solitary incident. Chinese fishermen harassing Japanese coast guard around Senkaku islands has been happening for a while now. China has been doing offshore drilling for oil in the disputed area. There was an incident of a Chinese fighter coming very close to a couple of American navy planes including a P8 in August last year.
I do not need to be a clairvoyant to show that China is becoming more and more aggressive even against a country that is supposed to be the lone "superpower" in the world.
Another incident happened few days back which reinforces my feeling that China is looking for a war on its eastern front. Janes Defence Weekly published a pic of a helicopter base being built by China on islands which are the closest Chinese outposts near Senkaku islands.
The trenches are going to have fueling pipes for the choppers. Basically this becomes a stopover for any helicopters from Chinese mainland on way to a mission for refueling. No prize for guessing where they will be going for the missions. I was typing this when I remembered an old WW-2 story of how an Allied force pilot realized that the war was near when he observed some German fuel lines on the airports. I could not find that story or article right now so will update later or request someone to send me the link.
China is a country which has a problem if India plans to build a road in Arunachal Pradesh claiming that it shows aggression. What then do all these incidents and deeds of the country represent in the two seas to the east?
Not even a country like China will go to war without some backup. Military budgets are being hiked year on year with hi-tech offensive (not defensive) platforms being inducted almost on a daily basis. A year worth of food stocks are in storage along with a "pork storage" as well. Reliance on middle east for oil is being reduced on a regular basis and even then, Pakistani port is being developed to keep minimum need for SLOC's through South and East China seas in case of a naval blockade there. India is being wooed to avoid a serious two front war.
Internal Politics
Now coming to the internal politics of China - a country which has historically worked on the "central kingdom" concept. In today's world, that central kingdom is Beijing with the areas around it being geared to act as buffers to prevent the occupation of the central kingdom by enemy. The larger the buffer, the lesser the possibility of this imaginary occupation. CPC (Communist Party of China) considers itself the sole owner of the fate of every Chinese (and possibly every human on Earth). The biggest fear that they have is a fear of losing this power. At present, there simply are too many issues which can blow up into civil unrest and overthrow (or at least a revolution). Economy is slowing with people losing jobs, domestic debt is 1.5 times the National GDP (with bleak possibility of the debt being cleared), Taiwan will declare independence (when is the only question).
The anti-corruption campaign of Xi has been used to clean up the CPC of his opponents who will obviously have a lot of their own supporters out to take revenge. In addition, with internet being internet along with the spurt of Chinese going out of the country, citizens are becoming aware of what they are missing out on in the rule of the CPC. I am sure, I have missed a dozen or so other points including Hong Kong etc.
All in all, just too many points for a communist party to not be peeing in its pants and fishing for some issue to keep the minds of people occupied. War has historically been the best bet. Ask the Americans. They will agree!
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